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Can Mauricio Pochettino improve Tottenham again in 2016/17?

With Vincent Janssen and Victor Wanyama signed, are Tottenham looking up under Mauricio Pochettino?

Did Tottenham miss their big chance or was last season’s title tilt a sign of things to come? Adam Bate examines the statistics to highlight the challenges facing Mauricio Pochettino and the reasons for optimism ahead of the 2016/17 Premier League season…

After the excitement of last season, a glance at the Premier League title odds doesn't make particularly inspiring reading for Tottenham supporters. Despite their title bid, they are down as sixth favourites to go two places better in 2016/17. The likes of Pep Guardiola, Jose Mourinho and Antonio Conte have arrived and hopes have been boosted.

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Spurs are not only behind both Manchester clubs and Chelsea in the betting but also Arsenal and Liverpool. As Leicester's triumph last term demonstrated only too well, bookmakers and pundits don't always get these things right. But even so, it's an illustration that the scale of the task facing Mauricio Pochettino and his Tottenham team is not likely to get any easier.

With others expected to improve, the onus is on Spurs to do the same. That could be a problem. The sight of Harry Kane and Dele Alli being unable to reproduce their club form at Euro 2016 had some pointing to potential problems of fatigue. Spurs are even travelling further than any other Premier League side this summer.

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Here's a look at Tottenham's new kit for the 2016/17 season

That should temper any expectations that these young players can continue on a sharp upward curve. The demands of Pochettino's high-tempo style can be exhausting - emotionally and physically - and there have been some signs that, while brilliant and effective, this can take its toll. Spurs won none of their final four games, most alarmingly losing 5-1 at already-relegated Newcastle.

Pochettino has still not endured the sort of dramatic collapses that his mentor and coaching inspiration Marcelo Bielsa faced at both Athletic Bilbao and Marseille, but such intensity does have consequences. In each of his last five full seasons in management, Pochettino's sides have suffered a dip in form during the final few months.

Pochettino's last five full seasons

Season Club Points per game (First 26) Points per game (Last 12)
2010/11 Espanyol 1.54 0.58
2011/12 Espanyol 1.38 0.83
2013/14 Southampton 1.50 1.42
2014/15 Tottenham 1.69 1.67
2015/16 Tottenham 1.96 1.58

That was particularly marked last season as Spurs appeared a little fragile in the run-in, but it's only a continuation of a theme. Over the course of his managerial career, Pochettino's sides have picked up only 1.26 points per game in the last 12 games of a season compared to 1.53 points per game from the first 26.

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Coming off the back of a busy summer, this only adds to the sense that it will be a huge task to replicate their best results over a full campaign. The good news for Spurs is that the underlying numbers are so strong that it might not require that much of an improvement to bring rewards. In many ways, they are already the Premier League's best team.

Tottenham's attack

Shots on target Chances created
Tottenham 252 Tottenham 501
Arsenal 211 Liverpool 498
Man City 210 Man City 479
Liverpool 202 Arsenal 469

Tottenham topped so many attacking metrics in 2015/16. Pochettino's men had the most shots and created the most chances. In terms of shots on target, they had almost 20 per cent more than anyone else. So emphatic was their dominance that they won nine matches by three goals or more.

But they were also defensively strong. No team conceded fewer goals, a consequence of having faced fewer shots on target than anyone else. Had it not been for that shock thrashing at Newcastle in their final game, Spurs would have been the first side since City's title-winning outfit of 2014 to go through an entire season without suffering a defeat by more than one goal.

Tottenham's defence

Goals conceded Shots on target faced
Tottenham 35 Tottenham 122
Man Utd 35 Man Utd 125
Arsenal 36 Man City 128
Leicester 36 Liverpool 132

Improving on those numbers will not be straightforward, but some of the ways in which Tottenham can get better are not only obvious but have already been addressed. Eric Dier was excellent as a holding midfielder last season but the need for competition was clear and new signing Victor Wanyama will bring that to the group.

"He's a player that can improve our squad - a holding midfielder that can play free and play very well with the ball," said Pochettino. "I think he is the perfect player for us." Is he an upgrade on Dier? In a sense, that's not the question that needs to be asked. Spurs won none of the three games that the England midfielder missed last season.

Tottenham's back-up options

Premier League 2015/16 Games Points Points per game
With Mason or Carroll starting 12 11 0.92
Without Mason or Carroll starting 26 59 2.27

Indeed, they won only one of the four Premier League matches that Tom Carroll started and, remarkably, only one of the eight Premier League matches for which Ryan Mason was included in the starting line-up. In total, those 12 matches for which the back-up midfielders were required yielded only 11 points.

That was decisive. Had they maintained the average points haul picked up from the other matches, Spurs would have got 27 points from those games and won the title with a game to spare. So Wanyama doesn't need to improve Spurs, he only needs to help ensure that the level of performance can be maintained when the squad is called upon.

Eric Dier of Tottenham Hotspur
Image: Spurs have improved the alternatives to Eric Dier (pictured) and Moussa Dembele

It's a similar story in attack, where the fears over an injury to Kane that so concerned supporters last season are likely to be offset by the acquisition of 22-year-old striker Vincent Janssen. The Netherlands international is one of the form forwards in Europe having hit 21 Eredivisie goals in 2016 alone.

Champions League commitments will ensure opportunities for Janssen, while adding to the challenge facing this team. But there is also hope. The hope that comes from going so close and from the stats that show how little more it would take to get over the line. The bookies might not be convinced, but maybe Pochettino's Tottenham are not a bad bet after all.

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